TRACKERS

Posted at 1:15 p.m. ET

Both trackers for the day are now out.  Rasmussen, as reported below, shows no change.  Obama up five.

Gallup confirms that, in practical terms, nothing has changed.  In fact, Gallup shows a one-point gain for Obama, who's up seven.  May just be statistical noise.

The trackers were done before Sarah Palin's speech last night.  However, in fairness I should point out that both included the speeches by Fred Thompson and Joe Lieberman the night before.   Were they completely ineffective?  Can't tell.  This was also the period of maximum assault against Sarah Palin. 

At this point, we're only speculating.  In looking at these numbers I've become a bit concerned.  I'd hoped that the assault on Palin would produce an immediate backlash in her favor.  That has not happened.  I'd hoped John McCain's compelling life story would draw undecideds to him.  That also has apparently not happened. 

The key will be polling over the next few days, and into the weekend.  If Palin's speech produces no bounce, and if it's ditto for McCain's tonight, then the public is sending a blunt message that it wants a new party in the White House, and that nothing else matters.  But we're not there yet, and I hope we don't get to that point.

One additional comment:  The Republicans have correctly emphasized the national-security theme, and I'm sure McCain will do so again tonight.  But there's a danger of carrying it too far.  To me, national security is the key issue.  But to millions of Americans, especially young Americans, other issues are equally critical.  McCain must address their concerns as well.

The next five days of polling will tell a major story.  Not final, to be sure, but major.

September 4, 2008.